Böcker av Barry B. Hughes

International Futures: Building and Using Global Models  extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years.

Uses the International Futures (IFs) simulation model to explore future prospects for the health of peoples across the world.

Did you know that global poverty is likely to decline over the next few years even if the global community does not take actions beyond those already under way? But according to the forecasts in this important new book, if we act strategically and purposefully, extreme global poverty could be virtually eliminated by the year 2050.

What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East?