Böcker av National Research Council

The Committee on Modeling and Simulation Enhancements for 21st Century Manufacturing and Acquisition was formed by the NRC in response to a request from the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) of DOD. The committee was asked to (1) investigate next-generation evolutionary and revolutionary M&S capabilities that will support enhanced defense systems acquisition; (2) identify specific emerging design, testing, and manufacturing process technologies that can be enabled by advanced M&S capabilities; (3) relate these emerging technologies to long-term DOD requirements; (4) assess ongoing efforts to develop advanced M&S capabilities and identify gaps that must be filled to make the emerging technologies a reality; (5) identify lessons learned from industry; and (6) recommend specific government actions to expedite development and to enable maximum DOD and U.S. commercial benefit from these capabilities. To complete its task, the committee identified relevant trends and their impact on defense acquisition needs; current use and support for use of M&S within DOD; lessons learned from commercial manufacturing; three cross-cutting and especially challenging uses of M&S technologies; and the areas in which basic research is needed in M&S in order to achieve the desired goals for manufacturing and defense acquisition.

The National Research Council (NRC) recently conducted several projects concerning urban poverty, racial disparities, and opportunities to change metropolitan areas in ways that have positive effects on residents' well-being. In reports such as Governance and Opportunity in Metropolitan America (1999), place, space, and neighborhood have become important lenses through which to understand the factors affecting opportunity and well-being. After the publication of Governance and Opportunity, the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services became interested in what insights research focused on place might offer in terms of improving the conditions of vulnerable families-a population about whom ASPE is particularly concerned. Because of its interest in the topic, ASPE provided generous support to the NRC to hold a workshop on the importance of place and to produce a report based on the findings of the workshop. This report, Equality of Opportunity and the Importance of Place, is the culmination of the NRC's work on behalf of ASPE.

Recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Europe and Japan set off alarm bells in the United States and other nations, prompting a flurry of new regulations, border controls, inspections, and other activities to prevent incursions of the diseases. The terrorist attacks in New York City and Washington, DC, added a new note of urgency to the alarm. Concerned about additional acts of terror or sabotage in various sectors of the economy, including agriculture, U.S. government and industry officials have begun to reevaluate emergency management plans in response to these threats and to shift the focus of research and planning. More than 200 representatives of government, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations gathered at a one-day workshop in Washington, DC, on January 15, 2002, to assess what the United States is doing about emerging animal diseases and related issues and to explore what still needs to be done. Major objectives of the workshop include: (1) elucidating information on the U.S. position with regard to potentially threatening animal diseases; (2) identifying critical problems, barriers, and data gaps; and (3) defining potential future National Academies' activities. Emerging Animal Diseases describes the issues presented and discussed by the workshop participants. This report summary extracts the key technical issues from the presentations and discussions, rather than presenting each session and panel discussion separately. Many issues were touched upon repeatedly by several speakers in different sessions, and this format is intended to allow readers who did not attend the workshop to have a good understanding of the discussions in the context of the entire workshop.

IDs--Not That Easy highlights some of the challenging policy, procedural, and technological issues presented by nationwide identity systems. In the wake of the events of September 11, 2001, nationwide identity systems have been proposed to better track the movement of suspected terrorists. However, questions arise as to who would use the system and how, if participation would be mandatory, the type of data that would be collected, and the legal structures needed to protect privacy. The committee's goal is to foster a broad and deliberate discussion among policy-makers and the public about the form of nationwide identity system that might be created, and whether such a system is desirable or feasible.

"This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. CTS-0096624."

This study, commissioned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), examines the role of robotic exploration missions in assessing the risks to the first human missions to Mars. Only those hazards arising from exposure to environmental, chemical, and biological agents on the planet are assessed. To ensure that it was including all previously identified hazards in its study, the Committee on Precursor Measurements Necessary to Support Human Operations on the Surface of Mars referred to the most recent report from NASA's Mars Exploration Program/ Payload Analysis Group (MEPAG) (Greeley, 2001). The committee concluded that the requirements identified in the present NRC report are indeed the only ones essential for NASA to pursue in order to mitigate potential hazards to the first human missions to Mars.

Each new generation of commercial aircraft produces less noise and fewer emissions per passenger-kilometer (or ton-kilometer of cargo) than the previous generation. However, the demand for air transportation services grows so quickly that total aircraft noise and emissions continue to increase. Meanwhile, federal, state, and local noise and air quality standards in the United States and overseas have become more stringent. It is becoming more difficult to reconcile public demand for inexpensive, easily accessible air transportation services with concurrent desires to reduce noise, improve local air quality, and protect the global environment against climate change and depletion of stratospheric ozone. This situation calls for federal leadership and strong action from industry and government. U.S. government, industry, and universities conduct research and develop technology that could help reduce aircraft noise and emissions-but only if the results are used to improve operational systems or standards. For example, the (now terminated) Advanced Subsonic Technology Program of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) generally brought new technology only to the point where a system, subsystem model, or prototype was demonstrated or could be validated in a relevant environment. Completing the maturation process-by fielding affordable, proven, commercially available systems for installation on new or modified aircraft-was left to industry and generally took place only if industry had an economic or regulatory incentive to make the necessary investment. In response to this situation, the Federal Aviation Administration, NASA, and the Environmental Protection Agency, asked the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board of the National Research Council to recommend research strategies and approaches that would further efforts to mitigate the environmental effects (i.e., noise and emissions) of aviation. The statement of task required the Committee on Aeronautics Research and Technology for Environmental Compatibility to assess whether existing research policies and programs are likely to foster the technological improvements needed to ensure that environmental constraints do not become a significant barrier to growth of the aviation sector.

During 2001, a severe drought occurred in the Klamath River Basin. The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) determined that the newly issued biological opinions and their RPAs must prevail; thus, water that would have gone to irrigators was directed almost entirely to attempts to maintain minimum lake levels and minimum flows as prescribed in the two RPAs. The severe economic consequences of this change in water management led DOI to request that the National Research Council (NRC) independently review the scientific and technical validity of the government's biological opinions and their RPAs. The NRC Committee on Endangered and Threatened Fishes in the Klamath River Basin was formed in response to this request. The committee was charged with filing an interim report after approximately less than 3 months of study and a final report after about 18 months of study. The interim report, which is summarized here, focuses on the biological assessments of the USBR (2001) and the USFWS and NMFS biological opinions of 2001 regarding the effects of Klamath Project operations on the three listed fish species.

Owing to the expected nature of combat in 2010, U.S. military forces face a pressing need to transform themselves for rapid response to an unpredictable threat. Rapid advances in commercial technology (particularly in electronics), coupled with the easy access to commercial technology enjoyed by potential adversaries, will compel DOD and defense contractors to excel at integrating commercial technology into defense systems. This integration of commercial and military manufacturing (ICMM) has begun on a small scale. By 2010, it needs to increase substantially if U.S. forces are to retain a technological edge. This report assesses the opportunities for increased ICMM in 2010 and beyond, identifies barriers, and recommends strategies for overcoming them.

The papers in this collection were commissioned by the Board on Testing and Assessment (BOTA) of the National Research Council (NRC) for a workshop held on November 14, 2001, with support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Goals for the workshop were twofold. One was to share the major messages of the recently released NRC committee report, Knowing What Students Know: The Science and Design of Educational Assessment (2001), which synthesizes advances in the cognitive sciences and methods of measurement, and considers their implications for improving educational assessment. The second goal was to delve more deeply into one of the major themes of that report-the role that technology could play in bringing those advances together, which is the focus of these papers. For the workshop, selected researchers working in the intersection of technology and assessment were asked to write about some of the challenges and opportunities for more fully capitalizing on the power of information technologies to improve assessment, to illustrate those issues with examples from their own research, and to identify priorities for research and development in this area.

The federal courts are seeking ways to increase the ability of judges to deal with difficult issues of scientific expert testimony. The workshop explored the new environment judges, plaintiffs, defendants, and experts face in light of "Daubert" and "Kumho," when presenting and evaluating scientific, engineering, and medical evidence.

Atlantic salmon in Maine, once abundant but now seriously depleted, were listed as endangered under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) in November 2000. The listing covers the wild fish in eight Maine rivers as a single "distinct population segment." The controversy in Maine that accompanied the listing led Congress to request the National Research Council's (NRC's) advice on the science relevant to understanding and reversing the declines in Maine's salmon populations. The charge to the NRC's Committee on Atlantic Salmon in Maine included an interim report focusing on the genetic makeup of Maine Atlantic salmon populations. This is the interim report. Understanding the genetic makeup of Maine's salmon is important for recovery efforts, because the degree to which populations in Maine differ from adjacent populations in Canada and the degree to which populations in different Maine rivers and tributaries differ from each other affect the choice of recovery options that are most likely to be effective. This report focuses only on questions of genetic distinctiveness. The committee's final report will address the broader issues, such as the factors that have caused Maine's salmon populations to decline and the options for helping them to recover.

This report evaluates the Defense Threat Reduction Agency prior and present sponsored efforts; assess the present state of the art in thermionic energy conversion systems; assess the technical challenges to the development of viable thermionic energy conversion systems for both space and terrestrial applications; and recommend a prioritized set of objectives for a future research and development program for advanced thermionic systems for space and terrestrial applications.

High-speed flight is a major technological challenge for both commercial and business aviation. As a first step in revitalizing efforts by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to achieve the technology objective of high-speed air travel, NASA requested the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study that would identify approaches for achieving breakthroughs in research and technology for commercial supersonic aircraft. Commercial Supersonic Technology documents the results of that effort. This report describes technical areas where ongoing work should be continued and new focused research initiated to enable operational deployment of an environmentally acceptable, economically viable commercial aircraft capable of sustained supersonic flight, including flight over land, at speeds up to approximately Mach 2 in the next 25 years or less.

The National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI) was envisioned as a way of enhancing the accessibility, communication, and use of geospatial data to support a wide variety of decisions at all levels of society. The goals of the NSDI are to reduce redundancy in geospatial data creation and maintenance, reduce the costs of geospatial data creation and maintenance, improve access to geospatial data, and improve the accuracy of geospatial data used by the broader community. At the core of the NSDI is the concept of partnerships, or collaborations, between different agencies, corporations, institutions, and levels of government. In a previous report, the Mapping Science Committee (MSC) defined a partnership as "...a joint activity of federal and state agencies, involving one or more agencies as joint principals focusing on geographic information." The concept of partnerships was built on the foundation of shared responsibilities, shared costs, shared benefits, and shared control. Partnerships are designed to share the costs of creation and maintenance of geospatial data, seeking to avoid unnecessary duplication, and to make it possible for data collected by one agency at a high level of spatial detail to be used by another agency in more generalized form. Over the past seven years, a series of funding programs administered by the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) has stimulated the creation of such partnerships, and thereby promoted the objectives of the NSDI, by raising awareness of the need for a coordinated national approach to geospatial data creation, maintenance, and use. They include the NSDI Cooperative Agreements Program, the Framework Demonstration Projects Program, the Community Demonstration Projects, and the Community-Federal Information Partnerships proposal. This report assesses the success of the FGDC partnership programs that have been established between the federal government and state and local government, industry, and academic communities in promoting the objectives of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure.

The Principal Deputy to the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition requested that the National Research Council (NRC) review the Air Force's planned acquisition programs to determine if, given its scale, the highly talented scientific, technical, and engineering personnel base could be maintained, to identify issues affecting the engineering and science work force, and to identify issues affecting the aerospace industry's leadership in technology development, innovation, and product quality, as well as its ability to support Air Force missions.

Since the mid-1940s, when Vannevar Bush and Theodore von Karman wrote Science, the Endless Frontier and Toward New Horizons, respectively, there has been a consensus that strong Department of Defense support of science and technology (S&T) is important to the security of the United States. During the Cold War, as it faced technologically capable adversaries whose forces potentially outnumbered U.S. forces, the United States relied on a strong defense S&T program to support the development of technologically superior weapons and systems that would enable it to prevail in the event of conflict. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has relied on its technological superiority to maintain a military advantage while at the same time reducing the size of its forces. Over the past half-century, creating and maintaining a technologically superior military capability have become fundamental to U.S. national security strategy, and investment in S&T has become a basic component of the defense budget.In late 1998, Congress asked the Secretary of Defense to conduct a study, in cooperation with the National Research Council (NRC), on the S&T base of the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Congress was particularly concerned about areas of the S&T program related to air systems, space systems, and supporting information systems. Its concern was based on the Air Force's reduction of its S&T program from the largest of the three military service programs to the smallest. Congress also wanted to ensure that the Air Force maintained an appropriately sized S&T workforce. In late 1999, the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Science and Technology asked the NRC to conduct a study to explore these issues.

A remarkable creation, the Internet encompasses a diversity of networks, technologies, and organizations. The enormous volume and great variety of data carried over it give it a rich complexity and texture. It has proved difficult to characterize, understand, or model in terms of large-scale behaviors and a detailed understanding of traffic behavior. Moreover, because it is very difficult to prototype new networks--or even new networking ideas--on an interesting scale, data-driven analysis and simulation are vital tools for evaluating proposed additions and changes to its design. Some argue that a vision for the future Internet should be to provide users the quality of experience they seek and to accommodate a diversity of interests. Looking Over the Fence at Networks explores how networking research could overcome the evident obstacles to help achieve this vision for the future and otherwise better understand and improve the Internet. This report stresses looking beyond the current Internet and evolutionary modifications thereof and aims to stimulate fresh thinking within the networking research community.

Interpreting the Volume-Outcome Relationship in the Context of Cancer Care is a summary of a workshop held on May 11, 2000, which brought together experts to review evidence of the relationship between volume of services and health-related outcomes for cancer and other conditions, discuss methodological issues related to the interpretation of the association between volume and outcome, assess the applicability of volume as an indicator of quality of care; and identify research needed to better understand the volume--outcome relationship and its application to quality improvement.

The Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) convened a workshop on November 4-5, 1999, to identify new directions for health statistics and the implications for health data of changes in the health arena faced by DHHS; state and local health departments; the consumers, developers, and providers of health care products and services; and other health policy makers. Changes in our understanding of health, in health care (managed care, Medicaid, Medicare), in welfare reform, in federal-state relations, in the availability of administrative data, in advanced genetic data, in information technology, in confidentiality issues, and in data integration are examples of recent developments that may play a significant role for DHHS in making future policy decisions.

The Board on Science, Technology and Economic Policy updated its 1999 analysis (Appendix A, Securing America's Industrial Strength, 1999) of changes since 1990 in the distribution of federal research funding by field of science and engineering) by incorporating FY 1998 and FY 1999 obligations from the NSF Federal Funds survey, with particular attention to the trends in basic research support, changes in research fields' relative dependence on research-sponsoring agencies, and the relationship between changes in research support and changes in enrollment in graduate training in selected fields of research. The Board did not recommend funding levels for any discipline but addressed procedural aspects of R&D budgeting.

In this century, the United States will be challenged to provide sufficient quantities of high-quality water to its growing population. Water is a limiting resource for human well-being and social development, and projections of population growth as well as changing social values suggest that demands for this resource will increase significantly. These projections have fueled concerns among the public and water resources professionals alike about the adequacy of future water supplies, the sustainability and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, and the viability of our current water resource research programs and our institutional and physical water resource infrastructures.With the goal of outlining a roadmap to guide policymakers, the Water Science and Technology Board (WSTB) held a series of discussions at several of its meetings in 1998-2000 about the future of the nation's water resources and the appropriate research needed to achieve their long-term sustainability. From those discussions, the board produced this report, the objectives of which are to:draw attention to the urgency and complexity of water resources issues facing the United States in the twenty-first century;broadly inform decision makers, researchers, and the public about these issues and challenges;identify needed knowledge and corresponding water resources research areas that should be emphasized immediately and over the long term; anddescribe ways in which the setting of the water research agenda, the conduct of water research, and investments devoted to such research should be improved in the next few decades. This report discusses major research questions related to the critical water issues that face the nation. It lays out an interdisciplinary research portfolio for the next 20 years and recommends agenda-setting processes that can maximize the nation's ability to prioritize and conduct water resources research.

Sea mines have been important in naval warfare throughout history and continue to be so today. They have caused major damage to naval forces, slowed or stopped naval actions and commercial shipping, and forced the alteration of strategic and tactical plans. The threat posed by sea mines continues, and is increasing, in today's world of inexpensive advanced electronics, nanotechnology, and multiple potential enemies, some of which are difficult to identify. This report assesses the Department of the Navy's capabilities for conducting naval mining and countermining sea operations.

Extending the life of an airframe has proven challenging and costly. Extending the life of an avionics system, however, is one of the most critical and difficult aspects of extending total aircraft system lifetimes. Critical components go out of production or become obsolete, and many former suppliers of military-grade components have gone out of business. From 1986 to 1996, for example, the percentage of discontinued military/aerospace electronic devices nearly doubled- from 7.5 percent to 13.5 percent. In addition, legacy avionics systems, which were designed to meet requirements of the past, generally lack the full capability to perform new missions, meet new threats, or perform well in the new information-intensive battlefield environments.As the legacy aircraft fleet ages, avionics systems will become more and more difficult to support and maintain. Whereas the military once provided a large and profitable market for the electronics industry, the military electronics market today constitutes less than 1 percent of the commercial market. As a result, the military must increasingly rely on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) technologies for its avionics hardware and software. Although COTS items are generally less expensive than comparable items designed especially to meet military specifications, the technology-refresh cycle for COTS is typically 18 months or less, which exacerbates the obsolescence problem for aircraft whose lifetimes are measured in decades. The short refresh cycle is driven mostly by the tremendous advances in computer systems, which comprise an increasing percentage of avionics content.In response to a request by the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, the National Research Council convened the Committee on Aging Avionics in Military Aircraft, under the auspices of the Air Force Science and Technology Board, to conduct this study. This report summarizes the following:- Gather information from DoD, other government agencies, and industrial sources on the status of, and issues surrounding, the aging avionics problem. This should include briefings from and discussions with senior industry executives and military acquisition and support personnel. A part of this activity should include a review of Air Force Materiel Command's study on diminishing manufacturing sources to recommend ways to mitigate avionics obsolescence.- Provide recommendations for new approaches and innovative techniques to improve management of aging avionics, with the goal of helping the Air Force to enhance supportability and replacement of aging and obsolescing avionics and minimize associated life cycle costs. Comment on the division of technology responsibility between DoD and industry.

This report surveys opportunities for future Army applications in biotechnology, including sensors, electronics and computers, materials, logistics, and medical therapeutics, by matching commercial trends and developments with enduring Army requirements. Several biotechnology areas are identified as important for the Army to exploit, either by direct funding of research or by indirect influence of commercial sources, to achieve significant gains in combat effectiveness before 2025.

On August 16, 2000, the Board on Life Sciences held a forum on "Environmental Contamination, Biotechnology, and the Law: The Impact of Emerging Genomic Information." The purpose of the forum was to explore the legal implications of current and developing biotechnology approaches to evaluating potential human health and environmental effects caused by exposure to environmental contaminants and to cleaning up contaminated areas. The forum brought together scientists from academe, government, and industry and members of the legal community, including lawyers and judges, to discuss the interface between the use of those approaches and the legal system.

This guide for students and faculty discusses opportunities and implications of conducting research in a digital environment.

At the request of the Chief of Naval Operations, the National Research Council, under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board, established a committee to assess the Department of the Navy's current and future naval theater missile defense (TMD) capabilities. The Committee for Naval Forces' Capability for Theater Missile Defense first convened in April 2000 and met approximately 2 days a month for 8 months. This report is based on the information presented to the committee during that period and on the committee members' accumulated experience and expertise in military operations, systems, and technologies.

The National Research Council's Committee on Atmospheric Chemistry (NRC/CAC) was established to serve as a focal point for NRC activities on issues related to atmospheric chemical change and its impacts on air quality, climate, stratospheric ozone depletion, and other related issues. The committee consists of 12 members with expertise covering the areas of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry; urban/regional air pollution; modeling of climate, chemistry, and atmospheric dynamics; in situ and remote sensing observational systems; and interfaces of science and public policy. This CAC study was motivated by a concern that, in the coming decades, dramatic increases in global population and urbanization levels, as well as changes in global climate, may significantly affect air quality over large regions of the globe. The charge to the committee was to examine the linkages among regional/ global changes in atmospheric composition, climate change, and air quality.

The high latitudes of the Arctic and Antarctic, together with some mountainous areas with glaciers and long-lasting snow, are sometimes called the cryosphere-defined as that portion of the planet where water is perennially or seasonally frozen as sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, ice sheets, and glaciers. Variations in the extent and characteristics of surface ice and snow in the high latitudes are of fundamental importance to global climate because of the amount of the sun's radiation that is reflected from these often white surfaces. Thus, the cryosphere is an important frontier for scientists seeking to understand past climate events, current weather, and climate variability. Obtaining the data necessary for such research requires the capability to observe and measure a variety of characteristics and processes exhibited by major ice sheets and large-scale patterns of snow and sea ice extent, and much of these data are gathered using satellites. As part of its efforts to better support the researchers studying the cryosphere and climate, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-using sophisticated satellite technology-measures a range of variables from atmospheric temperature, cloud properties, and aerosol concentration to ice sheet elevation, snow cover on land, and ocean salinity. These raw data are compiled and processed into products, or data sets, useful to scientists. These so-called "polar geophysical data sets" can then be studied and interpreted to answer questions related to atmosphere and climate, ice sheets, terrestrial systems, sea ice, ocean processes, and many other phenomena in the cryosphere. The goal of this report is to provide a brief review of the strategy, scope, and quality of existing polar geophysical data sets and help NASA find ways to make these products and future polar data sets more useful to researchers, especially those working on the global change questions that lie at the heart of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise.