Böcker av Noel Hendrickson

Counterfactual reasoning evaluates conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., ?What If? statements). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis. The process of counterfactual reasoning has three stages. First, one must establish the particular way in which the alternate possibility comes to be (i.e., develop its ?back-story?). Second, one must evaluate the events that occur between the time of the alternate possibility and the time for which one is considering its consequences. And third, one must examine the possible consequences of the alternate possibility?s back-story and the events that follow it. In doing so, an analyst must connect conclusions to speci

Structured around independent modules, the text offers a systematic method of reasoning along with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.

The Rowman & Littlefield Handbook for Critical Thinking provides a quick and authoritative reference for issues regarding reasoning, and provides clear and succinct discussions of issues such as counterfactuals, rational decision-making, and critical thinking in writing.