Navigating Uncertainty Using Foresight Intelligence

This book brings together a diverse range of findings on current and emerging business concerns when the authors were developing a series of 12 working Analytic Research Consortium (ARC) White Papers. It presents several, differently configured scenarios, drawing on cyber as an example; the use and further optimization of estimative/probabilistic language; communicating analytical insights and other findings concerning ¿(un)certainty¿ to decision-maker end-users; and mitigating risk. It also evaluates in detail today¿s rapidly evolving Gen-AI systems and technologies, e.g. those underlying OpenAI¿s ChatGPT and Google¿s Bard/Gemini. This includes their respective value concerning scenario development and other business-relevant methods, tools and techniques, e.g. ¿Red Teaming¿. The topics discussed are assessed using the multi-methodologies of, firstly, ¿Intelligence Engineering¿ (IE) and, secondly, ¿Strategic Options Analysis¿ (SOA). The latter half of the book introduces an alternative scenario planning process, including use of new computer-software and AI tools. In addition to Gen-AI, we identify that the emerging discipline of Causal AI may work better for foresight and scenario activities.
The book is a valuable read for a diverse readership from the public and private sectors, spanning government, the military, law enforcement, education, industry, commerce, retail, and enterprises of all sizes. Also, students at business schools and high-level decision-makers, including politicians, military commanders, and C-Suite leaders in various fields, will benefit from it.